![]() Though a wave of democratization occurred in the aftermath of the Cold War, the promise of an “end of history” gave way to a much more complex and unstable reality (Fukuyama, 1992). It was easy for the warnings about climate change to be drowned out amidst the clamor of a new post-Cold War world.Īfter 1989: Geopolitical Disruptions Divert Attention from Climate ChangeĪfter the Berlin Wall fell, the international security environment changed rapidly and in largely unpredictable ways, diverting attention from long-term, non-traditional risks such as climate change. In many ways, governments were not prepared for the more unpredictable changes to the international system that were in store. The wave of optimism that resulted from such cooperation, however, soon gave way to harsh and complex realities. Finally, on November 9, 1989, eleven months after the creation of the IPCC, the first segment of the Berlin Wall crumbled, setting the stage for the managed collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany. On August 26, 1989, the Montreal Protocol, a global agreement involving 197 countries designed to save the depleted Ozone layer, entered into effect (United States State Department, 2018). In April of 1989, cooperation on trade brought 123 nations together within the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade framework to agree on improved trade dispute settlement rules and procedures (WTO, 2018), which later laid the groundwork for the World Trade Organization. On June 1, 1988, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to eliminate their intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty entered into force (Arms Control Association, 2018), signaling a dramatic de-escalation in hostilities. This event heralded a wave of unprecedented international cooperation on major issues of security, trade and the environment. In June of 1988, over 300 scientists and high-level political leaders from 46 different countries came together for the “World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security.” The Conference Statement was stunning in the seriousness of its warning about climate change (WMO, 1988, 292), stating: “these changes represent a major threat to international security and are already having harmful consequences over many parts of the globe.” This warning was followed up by United Nations (UN) General Assembly Resolution 43/53 (UN, 1988) which warned of climatic changes that could be “disastrous for mankind if timely steps are not taken at all levels.” The Resolution created the IPCC, a cooperative body explicitly created for understanding the common threat of a changing climate. This combination of unprecedented risks and unprecedented foresight underscore a “Responsibility to Prepare.” ![]() While some of these changes have caught the international security community off-guard, we have seen climate change risks coming for many decades. Since then, the world has witnessed dramatic social, political, economic, and climatic shifts, as well as incredible technological change – including improvements in our ability to predict future changes in the climate and their implications for international security (Schleussner et al., 2016). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 and the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. The end of the Cold War coincided with the beginning of global awareness about the risks from climate change. ![]() ![]() This article is an abridged version of a forthcoming article for The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University.
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